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By "this," Hall is referring to an opposing economic picture painted by the two most important indicators the committee uses to assess whether - and what month - the economy has entered a recession. But real gross domestic product has only posted one quarter of contraction so far this year. Economists' technical definition of a recession is more complicated than the conventional definition, which calls a recession two or more straight quarters of shrinking GDP. The NBER panel instead looks at jobs, manufacturing and sales data, as well as GDP, for a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.

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Nasty issues keep cropping up. That predicament is, more or less, why there may not be revelry for a rare achievement of the United States economy: 10 years of growth without a recession. That has happened only once before, during the long expansion that ended in March

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